Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
